• Google Bookmarks
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Digg
  • reddit
The Campaign Trail
McCrory Tops Cooper In Latest Monmouth Poll PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Administrator   
Tuesday, 25 October 2016 11:52
West Long Branch, NJ  - In the contest for governor, GOP incumbent Pat McCrory holds a negligible 48% to 47% lead over Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper.  Two months ago, Cooper actually had a sizable 52% to 43% advantage over McCrory.  Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Lon Cecil, compared with 3% last month.
Tar Heel voters are divided on the incumbent's performance as governor, but are slightly more positive than they were in August, when state law HB2 that prohibits local governments from allowing transgender public restrooms was a clear drag on his support.  McCrory currently earns a 49% approve and 45% disapprove job rating, compared with a 45% approve and 46% disapprove rating in August.
"HB2 seemed to be the contest's driving factor during the summer, but the devastation left by Hurricane Matthew may be a more immediate concern for many voters. This could be contributing to the swing in this race," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Voters' personal rating of McCrory remains divided at 43% favorable and 42% unfavorable, compared with 39% favorable and 41% unfavorable in August.  Cooper has a net positive personal rating of 40% favorable and 26% unfavorable, compared with 38% favorable and 18% unfavorable in August.
The poll also noted a small down-ballot turnout effect that could cut into Republican leads.  When those who are considered to be least probable to turn out on November 8 th  are removed from the pool of likely voters, the presidential race margin remains about the same, but the race for U.S. Senate and governor shifts about 3 to 4 points toward the Democrats.
"The least probable voters include Trump supporters who feel the prospect of victory is slipping away and Republicans who are reluctantly voting for Clinton at the top of the ticket.  If both types of voters stay away from the polls on Election Day, it could have a negative impact on GOP candidates down the ballot," said Murray.
The presidential race in North Carolina remains extremely tight with Hillary Clinton holding a negligible one point lead over Donald Trump - virtually unchanged from two months ago.  The U.S. Senate race finds incumbent Richard Burr holding a 6 point lead, up from 2 points in August.  The biggest shift in voter support has occurred in the race for governor, where incumbent Pat McCrory has taken a slim one point lead after trailing his challenger by 9 points in the prior Monmouth University Poll .
Among North Carolina voters likely to cast ballots in November's presidential election, 47% currently support Clinton and 46% back Trump, while another 4% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson.  In the Monmouth poll taken in late August, Clinton had 44% support, Trump had 42% support, and Johnson had 7% support.
Clinton has a large lead among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters (78% to 16%), while Trump continues to lead among white voters (59% to 35%).  Trump maintains leads among both white men (60% to 32% compared with 51% to 29% in August) and white women (58% to 38% compared with 56% to 33% in August).
Trump has increased his sizable advantage among white voters without a college degree - 72% to 23%, compared with 66% to 22% two months ago.  However, he still trails among white voters with a college degree - 43% to 50% for Clinton, which is slightly worse than his 39% to 43% deficit two months ago. 
"The main thing that's moved in this race is a drop in support for Gary Johnson and more undecided voters making up their minds.  In any event, it remains a nail-biter," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Murray added, "Clinton appears to hold a sizable lead among early voters, but Trump is staying close because of his large lead among white voters who have not yet cast their ballots."  About 12% of likely voters polled report that they have already voted.
Tar Heel voters continue to give nearly identical ratings to the two major party nominees.  Just 33% have a favorable opinion of Trump and 54% have an unfavorable view, which has changed little from his 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating in August.  Likewise, 35% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 55% have an unfavorable view, which is similar to her 36% favorable and 52% unfavorable rating in August.
Turning to the U.S. Senate race, GOP incumbent Richard Burr has improved his lead over former Democratic state legislator Deborah Ross.  The race now stands at 49% to 43% in the incumbent's favor, compared with his 45% to 43% lead two months ago.  Another 2% of voters say they will support Libertarian Sean Haugh, compared to 4% in August.
Burr earns a narrowly positive job rating from North Carolina voters - 46% approve and 38% disapprove of his performance in the U.S. Senate, which is slightly more negative than his 46% to 30% rating two months ago.  The results are similar for voters' personal opinion of the two-term senator, with 36% holding a favorable view and 32% having an unfavorable view of him personally, while 33% have no opinion.  His August rating stood at 32% favorable, 21% unfavorable, and 47% no opinion.  The Democratic challenger earns similar ratings as her name recognition has improved substantially since the summer.  Ross currently earns a 30% favorable and 30% unfavorable personal rating, with 39% having no opinion of her.  This compares with her August rating of 23% favorable, 6% unfavorable, and 71% having no opinion.
"This contest became a surprise entry on the list of close races that will determine control of the U.S. Senate.  Burr seems to be holding off a tough challenge, at least for now," said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from October 20 to 23, 2016 with 402 North Carolina residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of ±4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
Realtor: Call Me If The Presidential Race Drives You Out Of The Country PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Administrator   
Tuesday, 25 October 2016 11:43
A Raleigh realtor wants to talk to you if you’re planning to leave the country if Donald Trump wins the presidential election. 
“If TRUMP is elected president, are you leaving the country?”Will Wofford of Berkshire Hathaway HomeService wrote on a mailer. 
Wofford told the News and Observer says he got the idea from hearing people say they’d have to move if Trump gets elected. He hoped the mailer – “really a joke” – would draw the attention of recipients who might otherwise throw a real-estate ad in the trash.
“It’s producing pretty good results,” told the Raleigh paper. “I’ve had people put this on Facebook and email me.”
Ross Outraised Burr in 3rd Quarter PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Administrator   
Tuesday, 25 October 2016 11:39
Democrat Deborah Ross continued to out-raise Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr during the last quarter according to reports from the Federal Election Commission. Ross raised 4.5 million during the third quarer, compared to $2.6 million raised by Burr. Ross has raised more money than Burr in three consecutive quarters, however, Burr started the race with more than $5million in the bank.   
Additionally, the News and Observer reports outside groups have spent more than $15 million on behalf of Burr compared with around $11 million for Ross.  Outside groups have spent $26.6 million on the race, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s a third of the $77 million outside groups spent on the 2014 Senate race between Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan. 
Burr's Senate seat has been targeted by Democrats as they to take majority in the Senate. They need a net gain of four seats for control, or five if there’s a Republican vice president who would vote in the case of a tie.
CNN Poll: Race For President, Senate and Governor Tight In North Carolina PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Administrator   
Monday, 17 October 2016 14:50
(CNN) Across three critical battleground states, the race for president remains tight, according to new CNN/ORC polls in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.
A new CNN poll finds Hillary Clinton narrowly ahead of Donald Trump in North Carolina and Nevada but continuing to trail the Republican Party's presidential nominee in one of the biggest electoral vote prizes on the map, Ohio.
Looking to the downballot races, both are close in North Carolina, with just a 1-point margin between Richard Burr and Deborah Ross in the state's senate race, and Roy Cooper at 49% to incumbent Pat McCrory's 48% in the gubernatorial race there. The senate race in Nevada tilts Democratic, 52% for Catherine Cortez Masto to 45% for Joe Heck, while in Ohio, Rob Portman continues to hold a wide lead over Ted Strickland, 56% to 40%.
The polls were taken after accusations of sexual assault against Trump rolled out and the release of a video that has the Republican nominee on a hot mic talking about women in a sexually aggressive and lewd way. 
Most voters in these state had heard a great deal about the video but in Ohio and North Carolina it appears these allegations aren't hurting Trump. 
In North Carolina, Clinton is up 11 points among women, Trump up 7 points among men. And in Ohio, the gender divide finds women almost evenly split, 48% to 45%, while Trump tops Clinton 52% to 39% among men. The big difference: Married women in Ohio break for Trump, 54% to 40%, while in the other two states, married women tilt the other way. Unmarried women in all three states break in Clinton's favor by a wide margin.
College educated whites in North Carolina break sharply in Clinton's favor, 59% Clinton to 37% Trump in North Carolina. They tilt more narrowly toward Clinton in Ohio, 48% Clinton to 44% Trump. 
White voters without college degrees remain a core of Trump's support, backing him over Clinton by 48 points in North Carolina, 26 points in Ohio and 25 points in Nevada.  In North Carolina, Clinton's support is bolstered by a 93% to 4% advantage among black voters, about on par with Obama's margin there in 2012. 
None of these polls shows Clinton reaching Obama's level of support among younger voters. In Ohio and Nevada, there isn't much of an age gap, though Clinton does fare somewhat better among younger voters than among older ones in North Carolina.
There is some evidence in the polls that Trump holds support among white evangelicals 77% in North Carolina and 73% in Ohio back Trump. 
Likely voters who back Clinton in Nevada and North Carolina are more set in their choices than are Trump backers in the state, with just 7% of Clinton supporters in Nevada and 6% in North Carolina saying there's a chance they could change their mind by election day. 
Among Trump backers, the equivalent numbers are 14% in Nevada and 13% in North Carolina. In Ohio, however, both candidate's supporters are equally likely to say they could change their minds before election day, 12% say they're not set in their choices.
Among registered voters overall, Trump's backers are more enthusiastic about voting than are Clinton's supporters in both Nevada (57% extremely or very enthusiastic among Trump backers vs. 48% among Clinton supporters) and Ohio (45% for Trump voters, 38% for Clinton voters). In North Carolina, Clinton holds the edge, 53% to 48%.
By a wide margin, voters in all three states say the candidates' positions on the issues will be more important to their vote than the candidates' personal qualities, a judgment that appears to work in Trump's favor. He tops Clinton as better able to handle the economy in all three states, though his advantage is within the survey's margin of error in Nevada, and in Ohio, he also holds a significant edge on handling immigration and trade with other countries. In both North Carolina and Nevada, Clinton appears to have the upper hand on those two issues. In all three states, she has the lead on handling foreign policy, and as better able to handle the responsibilities of being commander in chief.
Looking to the downballot races, both are close in North Carolina, with just a 1-point margin between Richard Burr and Deborah Ross in the state's senate race, and Roy Cooper at 49% to incumbent Pat McCrory's 48% in the gubernatorial race there. The senate race in Nevada tilts Democratic, 52% for Catherine Cortez Masto to 45% for Joe Heck, while in Ohio, Rob Portman continues to hold a wide lead over Ted Strickland, 56% to 40%.
The CNN/ORC Polls were conducted by telephone on landlines and cellphones from October 10 through 15. In Nevada, interviews were conducted with 1,006 adults, including 862 registered voters and 698 likely voters. In North Carolina, the 1,025 adults interviewed included 929 registered voters and 788 likely voters. And in Ohio, interviews with 1,009 adults included 890 registered voters and 774 likely voters. Results for likely voters in each state have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, it is 3.5 points for registered voters in Nevada and Ohio, and 3 points for registered voters in North Carolina.

Page 4 of 8
Copyright 2011 - All Rights Reserved
3012 Highwoods Blvd., Suite 200
Raleigh, NC 27604
Telephone: (919) 790-9392